Gissningsleken fortsätter - Saxo Bank

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Hade förväntat mig en bra uppgång idag, men börserna i Europa kom av sig nästan direkt och Stockholmsbörsen vände till minus ganska snabbt när terminerna visade på svag öppning av börserna i USA. Hur kan analytiker ha så olika uppfattningar om utvecklingen för aktier på börsen. Det finns nog ingen annan yrkeskår där man kan kalla sig proffs, få bra betalt och ändå gissa så fel och vara så oense. Nu säger Saxo bank att de kan det här med prognoser och var ute med korrekta prognoser redan 2007 som slog in. Så här ser Saxo Bank på 2009:

1. Omfattande inhemsk oro i Iran då oljeefterfrågan minskar
2. Oljepriset ner till 25 dollar
3. S&P 500 rasar 50 procent
4. Italien kan tvingas lämna EMU
5. Växelkursen australiensiska dollar/japanska yen faller till 40
6. Euro/US dollar faller till 0,95 och rasar sedan till 1,3
7. Kina visar nolltillväxt
8. Stora kapitalutflöden pressar flera Östeuropeiska valutor knutna till euron
9. Råvaruindex faller 30 procent
10. Asiatiska valutor knyts för första gången till kinesiska yuanen